Bitcoin's recent collapse highlights need for robust risk ...

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

First of all i should disclose i'm fully out of crypto since last Sunday, i'm just waiting for my EUR wire from Bitstamp as that has been my gateway since 2014. I would like to thank bitcoinmarkets for the good times, i've been around for a long time but not really participating that much, and even when I did i used throwaways. I decided to make this topic as a warning and to explain why I got out and why I think you should be very careful.
So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat balance (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether (or other stablecoin) is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
edit: [Even if tether is 1%, it holds much more assumed/created value, which is the actual issue. Look at it this way. It only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. It's not 1.01+1.01 times 1 million. It's more like 1.01$1.000.000 Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is NOT it's market cap. That's a shitfest all "stablecoins" inject into the market, no matter how backed or audited they are.]
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin: Breaking All the Rules: Idiocracy: Sad vs. Happy Ending?: To Be Continued

4 years ago my girlfriend and I were trekking through Costa Rica, listening to a podcast about the silk road and a dark web. It was such a great listen and the content was something right out of a science fiction novel. Hackers, drug and arms dealers, digital rebels. The podcast went on to talk about how they used a digital currency. They talked about how it didn't have a bank, but rather it had kiosks that you could use to purchase these Bitcoins. In my imagination, they put money into an atm and out popped a gold coin that proved they owned that digital currency, silly.
Who would have thought this podcast was revealing an asset with the potential to turn rags to riches?! I just wasn't able to wrap my head around what was happening then. In my defense I was pleasantly distracted on an adventure in Costa Rica! I couldn't put the pieces together, the internet and currency were uniting under a blanket of anonymity. Must have been too busy looking for Toucans and Scarlet Macaws.
I've never been one to invest, never had the savings. Rough past and not a lot of income. Never smart with money. I was only able to go to Costa Rica because of a tiny inheritance from my grandmother passing away. If only I had spent the rest ($5,000) on those Bitcoin thingies!
I went about my life occasionally hearing about Bitcoin and I would always remember that podcast. Had I just opened up Google and followed up more, fuckin hindsight... Years go by and i hear how Bitcoin suffered some big losses here and there but I kept my distance.
This brings us to January 2017... Money is extremely tight as always and we've started taking on credit card debt with daily expenses and things are adding up. One day I'm in the men's library (shitter) and I read headlines saying Bitcoin is making a monster run. I decide then and there that I won't let this opportunity pass me by, "it's time to get ahead" says an internal voice. "But, you have no nest egg" says another. I didn't know what FOMO was at the time, but this was the ultimate case. I threw caution to the wind and went in hard towards a dream of financial freedom. It's as if the stars were going to align and I would finally catch a break. I took out a loan for 10k and stocked my digital wallet. Now I just needed to sit back and watch this thing continue to run. Financial freedom, here we come!!!
News Flash: South Korea is looking to ban cryptocurrency trading India announces they are going to crack down South Korea not banning cryptocurrency but no longer anonymous trading Bitfinex/Tether subpoena Coins being stolen by the millions US to discuss cryptocurrency regulations China bans citizens from foreign exchanges Binance "hacked" Mt Gox trustee dumping hundreds of thousands of coins on the open market Market manipulation Bitcoin is a bubble
I mean talk about a cluster fuck the moment I entered the trade! I feel like I bought tickets to Bitcoin's show and the asshole said peace and dropped the mic. This was one of the worst decisions I've ever made, and I've done a lot of dumb shit in my life. Taking out credit on an investment?! Brilliant! I made the biggest mistake in the book (one I had clearly never read) which is don't put in what you're not willing to lose.
I've read a lot of posts from veterans on Reddit who paint the perfect picture of my portrait "The Idiot Rookie and the Bitcoin" it's a masterpiece. I do commend a lot of you guys, I've seen some great advice. Advice that I wish I had read before diving head first into this world. I've always been a tough lesson kind of guy and class is in session. Hopefully I can graduate.
All aboard the emotional roller-coaster of cryptocurrency with too much invested! The last 2 months have been an experience like none other. So many ups and downs. Tonight I'm restless, so I type this story for you. This is the story about a dumbass guy who was grasping at straws and still is. His intentions may be good, but who knows how he'll fare. Sure a lot of you say cut your losses, but how do you cut ties with something you've fallen in love with? How do you turn your back on the tech after the fact?
Buckle Up It Gets Worse: Last weekend I finally broke the news to my fiance that I had done this behind her back potential increasing our debt if this thing blows up. Let's say things aren't the greatest in the love life. Trust for the first time in 4.5 years of our relationship is in question.
So here we are. The price is dropping hard, again. Things are a mess but I still hold on for dear life. Strange thing is that its starting to have no effect on me. Despite the ramifications of a complete crash, you think I would. Maybe I'd be a great investor if I didn't have debt on the line. All I do now is research blockchain day in and day out. I've done so everyday since things went south. Figured I should learn what the hell I heard about in that podcast so many years ago. Should learn about what I overextended myself with a loan for.
It really is brilliant. Blockchain is without a doubt a huge piece to our future.
All the ups, downs, sad truths to loved ones, fist pumps when I see a price pump and the swear words when they dunno (today I got caught in Ast after I fucked up my stop loss...) I've made countless mistakes and I'm sure I'll make more. I keep pushing myself towards becoming a knowledgeable tradeinvestor in hopes that I'll stop making mistakes when I do both. I'm definitely a HODLer until then, with a coin I'm not passionate about (AST) and a few that I am.
It's been over 2 months since entry. My skin is leather now, the stress of the past few months have turned my insides to stone. I'm down 60% and I'm still optimistic (or in denial?). I'm bleeding just like the rest of you, maybe even more with the interest. Will my decision to HODL be the right one? I guess only time will tell. My fiance asked me if I'm willing to accept the loss if a full crash occurs or at least willing to manage the interest until the investment turns positive. I'm 99% sure that I am, now that I know what this technology is all about.
Are you?
To be continued...
edit the reason I share my story is to not add to the sentiment of fear, but rather to give hope to other new investors. Just maybe one person, new to cryptocurrency reads this and says, ok things aren't as bad for me, I'll HODL with this dude. One less person quitting cryptocurrency is a win in my book.
submitted by MrMinesotaMan to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat reserves (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
Even if tether is 1% it holds much more assumed value, which is the actual issue. Let's say only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is not it's market cap.
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

The year is 2100

The year is 2100. Michael had crypto lessons and asks Grandpa if he were there at the beginning. Grandpa remembers well. He tells Michael that Bitcoin was fucked twice by the same shit. First time was back in 2012/2013, when Mt.Gox got hacked, bankrupt and BTC crashed quite good and sent everything into a bear market. The fault here was that 80% traded there, therefore giving the exchanges too much power. Second time they had moved onto more exchanges like Kucoin, Binance, Bitrex etc, people have learned that giving one exchange so much power was not good. However in 2018, the after effects of Mt.Gox showed again and crashed BTC again. However, it recoupled this time in only 5 months. From this, people learned they shouldn't keep much money on centralized exchanges, so around 50% of volume went to decentralized exchanges like IDEX, Forkdelta, and the numerous others that popped up in the following years.
After Mt.Gox fucked up BTC twice, there was not much left stopping BTC, which is why it reached it ATH in 2020 without major corrections until then, and then passing the #1 Spot to it's succesor. It lived well, but it never reached it's ATH again. Nowadays, in 2100 not many people own BTC, first because it has no utility anymore, and 2nd because it's still expensive, it became more like a collectible for the future, which is also why Bitconnect Coins rose to 100$ again.
submitted by valoon4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Bitcoin FALLS, Binance ISSUES, SEC regs, and we were Mt GOXED again? Bitcoin FUD - Mt Gox, Binance Hack, SEC Regulations! The Strange Binance Hack, Mt Gox Crashing BTC, And Twitter Spam Crypto Market Tumbles With Bad News - Binance Hack, Bittrex Country Ban, Mt Gox Sell Off & SEC #314 Bitcoin Flash Crash, Binance Hack & Mt Gox News, Coinbase Indexfonds & TrueUSD Mt. Gox Trustee Move 16k Bitcoin, Will Bitcoin Crash? MT. GOX TO CRASH BITCOIN AGAIN! - A HISTORY OF MT. GOX SCANDAL STORY

The Mt. Gox Crash. Bitcoin was steadily growing through January and February when it suddenly fell nearly 50 percent from $867 to $439 – because of Mt. Gox, largest exchange of that time, supposedly got hacked and was shut down. The exchange soon halted withdrawals and later revealed that thieves stole 850,000 Bitcoins (which would be worth ... At the beginning of 2014, Mt Gox, a bitcoin exchange based in Japan, was the largest bitcoin exchange in the world, handling over 70% of all bitcoin transactions worldwide. By the end of February of that year, it was bankrupt. Anyone who was using Mt. Gox lost access to their assets, and it has been a cautionary tale for crypto investors. While the assets weren’t all lost, anything that was ... Bitcoin owes one of its first major drops to the already closed Mt Gox exchange, which closed in 2014. However, back in 2011 it flourished – it was then, on February 9, 2011, that Bitcoin first reached parity with the US dollar and was valued at $ 1 per BTC on the Mt Gox exchange, and its price continued to rise, reaching almost $32 by mid-June. However, on June 19, 2011, after hacking Mt ... Bitcoin’s recent crash seemed to highlight that fact. The meltdown, panic, and fear that resonated in the minds of investors after Bitcoin fell to as low as $3.8k actually highlighted an urgent need for better infrastructure and risk management mechanisms. The Telegraph reported yesterday that Bitcoin investors may be looking at yet another round of “intense selling pressure,” courtesy of infamous Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox.. The notorious exchange, which once handled over 70 percent of all bitcoin (BTC) transactions, is now reportedly being forced to pay out $1 billion worth of coins following the company’s liquidation after ... Now, the indicator flashed again, showing that Bitcoin BTC could crash again this month. This is a fairly complex indicator in the Bitcoin news and one that signals “sell” from a unique perspective. In mid-February, for instance, when the cryptocurrency rose to its yearly high to $10,500, the TD indicator presented a sell signal in the form ... However, the April 2013 crash would act as a precursor for one of the most devastating events in the history of Bitcoin. After the hack of Mt. Gox crypto exchange, BTC started a 411-day tumble that saw it crash 85 percent. The slump was from an all-time high of $1,151 to $177. This happened between November 30, 2013, to January 14, 2015.

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Bitcoin FALLS, Binance ISSUES, SEC regs, and we were Mt GOXED again?

Please try again later. ... The Curse of Mt Gox Still Haunts Us - Bitcoin Crash - Duration: 9:24. Bitraged 5,615 views. 9:24. 80 Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Exit Plan - Duration: 22:12. Mineable ... Please try again later. Published on Mar 7, 2018 talking about an unusual form of hacking on binance today. as well as an additional recently unnoticed reasoning of the december - february crypto ... Bitcoin took a dive for under $10k and reason enough we have three whys: Binance and VIA coin,, SEC Regulations and Mt. Gox's 2015 Hack involved? March 07, 2018 March 07, 2018 Hit Candace up on ... Willkommen zur Bitcoin-Informant Show Nr. 314. Heute geht's um folgende Themen: Bitcoin Flash Crash, Binance Hack & Mt.Gox News, Coinbase Indexfonds & Bittrex listet TrueUSD als Gegenstück zum ... So the Mt. Gox Trustee just moved 16,000 bitcoin to another wallet and people are starting to panic. I explain why this is complete BS. I explain why this is complete BS. What I Use For Charting: The crypto market went tumbling downwards today as a load of bad news came along- Binance hack rumor, Mt Gox Trustee Sells off all Bitcoin, SEC wants to regulate all crypto exchanges, and Bittrex ... Hope you enjoyed the video. If you liked and learnt from it please like this video and share it with your friend and family on Facebook, Twitter, Word of Mouth etc. DONATIONS ♥ BTC ...

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